Archive for March, 2010

Venezuela’s president Hugo Chavez seems to have borrowed a page from the most infamous tyrants in history. Domestically he’s emasculated any media critical of him, modified the constitution to allow himself to be perpetually reelected, and effectively neutralized any political opposition, not to mention expropriated and nationalized both foreign and locally owned businesses.

Illustration courtesy of Jason Smith

Internationally, Chavez has made much publicized alliances with other pariah states such as Iran,  Syria, North Korea and Libya, and more importantly, with Russia. He’s maintained an extremely close relationship with Cuba, installing thousands of Fidel Castro’s people in his own government, and maintained narrow ties with Manuel Ortega, Nicaragua’s own leftist ruler. Chavez has exported his leftist Bolivarian Revolution to Bolivia, where president Evo Morales seems to echo his every word. Honduras’ former president, Manuel Zelaya, was in the process of implementing Chavista reforms, when he was ousted last year. Ecuador, formerly Chavez’ strongest ally, has suddenly turned its back on him. Despite these reversals, it’s clear that Chavez doesn’t intend to keep his ambitions to his own yard, and no doubt will continue to seek to expand his sphere of influence on a worldwide scale.

Much of his efforts seem aimed at irritating the United States, the “imperialists” whom he continuously lambastes publicly. At the same time, he’s engaged in a rapid build-up of his military, triggering a regional arms race. Additionally, he’s relentlessly harassed and threatened neighboring Colombia, a strong US ally, covertly supporting armed rebel groups there. This is only a superficial sketch of a dictator dedicated to generating controversy, and whose mad rhetoric should be a source of great alarm. Mysteriously, the world’s leaders have mostly remained silent, refusing to criticize his affronts  Latin America has been the most docile, Argentina offering vocal support, while Chile and Brazil have occasionally sided with Venezuela in international disputes. Why isn’t anybody denouncing Chavez?

It’s easy to criticize and isolate a despot such as Robert Mugabe, since Zimbabwe is an impoverished country with little direct foreign investment. There’s much more to lose if you aggravate the leader of the most oil rich nation in South America. Get Chavez angry, and he could seize your Venezuelan assets, stop importing your goods, or cut off your oil supply. He’s already demonstrated how far he can go with Colombia, totally dismantling bilateral trade in the shortest time span, seizing assets, and even convincing Ecuador to do the same for a while.

The US imports about  15 percent of its petroleum requirements from Venezuela,, an amount that could not easily be replaced. If Washington put Venezuela on its list of terrorist sponsoring states, as proposed by a bill now before congress,  all trade with that country would become illegal.  That’s not likely to happen., even though Venezuela deserves more than any other state to be put on that list.  Another country that has strong reasons to cut off ties and condemn Venezuela is Spain, especially after it was verified that Chavez had aided and abetted the ETA, the separatist Basque rebel group. If Spain’s response has been rather timid, even apologetic at times, it can be attributed to its dependence on Venezuelan oil as well as fear for its large investments in that country. Some countries have benefited from Chavez’ largesse, receiving oil contracts at well below market cost,  monetary aid or cheap financing amounting to several billion dollars just in Latin America and the Caribbean. Such gifts buy love!

Chavez’ immunity is rooted in the availability of petrodollars and the world’s dependency on oil. World leaders aren’t seeing beyond their economic interests and in so doing are allowing Chavez to buy time and thus increase his power base. If all the warning signs continue to be ignored, these same politicians may find their reputations sullied by what will ensue, which could either be an ugly regional armed conflict or something akin to a new cold war. But then again, history does tend to repeat itself, doesn’t it?