Colombia, Then and Now
Photo courtesy of Daniel Andres Forero
Colombia was one of the most dangerous countries on earth. Colombia is still one of the most dangerous places on earth.
Not so long ago, armed rebel groups such as the FARC and the ELN, as well as the paramilitary factions meant to counter them, terrorized the population in most of the rural areas across the country, while the cities were ruled by the powerful drug cartels. Adding further grief to this sorry panorama was the rampant corruption found in all government, military and judicial levels. It’s not an exaggeration to say that at one time, this was a nation ruled by criminals.
Nonetheless, public security has improved dramatically since. First, with a large dose of help (and pressure) from the United States, the dominant cartels based in Cali and Medellin were dismantled by the mid-nineties. The power vacuum left behind was soon filled by smaller criminal groups, as well as the rebels and paramilitary, but it also allowed the government to gradually regain control of its cities. At first, the authorities made the fatal mistake of trying to negotiate with the rebel groups, which only resulted in them gaining more strength and controlling more territory.
The turning point came in 2002, with the election of President Alvaro Uribe, who won on a platform of national security and soon put his plan into action. The first part of his plan was to clean-up corruption from within the military and judicial wings. Next he negotiated the surrender of most of the paramilitary groups, giving them pardons and reintegrating them into society, in tandem with an all-out war against the rebel groups, which continues to this day.
While rebels still haunt parts of the country, they’ve been routed from most, suffering heavy losses at the hands of the military. For the first time in decades, it’s now possible for Colombians as well as tourists to travel by land between most large cities, where before there was a high risk of being captured for ransom or just plain killed by the armed groups. Cities like Medellin and Bogota are now safer than many of their Brazilian counterparts. The body counts are still too high, however, but most of the violence happens within the slums.
There are a few dark clouds on the horizon, however: 2010 is a Presidential election year. Proponents of a Uribe third reelection bid are running out of time, as the Colombian constitution forbids a third mandate. Since pushing through a constitutional amendment in time is unlikely, the big question is whether his successor will be able to maintain the pressure on the illegal armed groups and the criminal gangs, or will we see a return to the chaos that once brought this country to its knees? Another danger lurking around the corner comes from outside Colombia: Venezuela.
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Tom,
This is a great post and gives an excellent summary of the situation in Colombia. As for the upcoming elections, I believe that the main factors upon which the electorate will decide are the positions of the candidates regarding the continuation of Uribe’s democratic security policy, potential negotiations and/or hostage/prisoner exchange with the FARC, and Hugo Chávez and other “21st century socialists”. Considering the feelings of the major part of the country with regards to these points, Juan Manuel Santos and, to a lesser extent, Noemi Sanin could be considered the “natural successor” of Uribe. Interestingly, the last few days have shown a different evolution. While Santos maintains the lead in the polls, Sanin, who was second in the polls only a few weeks ago, was now overtaken by Antanas Mockus, Bogotá’s very popular former mayor who recently joined forces with Sergio Fajardo. Fajardo, a former mayor of Colombia’s second largest city Medellin, was presidential candidate himself, but now agreed to join Mockus as his vice-presidential candidate after the polls gave him little hopes for success. While Mockus/Fajardo are very popular in their respective cities, they are rather “unknown” outside of these. If they make it to the second round, mobilizing support outside Bogotá and Medellin will be their major challenge. They have a huge support among young people and students, but they need to mobilize also other strata of the population. Both Mockus and Fajardo are academics and not really not “hard core” politicians. Their proposals so far are rather vague. Nevertheless, they achieved considerable successes during their respective terms as mayors, sometimes with unconventional means. Mockus’ focus in Bogotá was on the civic education of the people. If they can convince the public at large about their successes and the concrete plans about how to address the issues of most concern in Colombia, they even might have a real chance challenge Santos, who, although seen as the one predestined for continuing Uribe’s policies, is often also perceived as a member of the country’s political and economic elite/bourgeoisie. Uribe has addressed many of the problems which the country suffered from 8 years ago. The increased security in the major cities and the dramatic decrease in kidnappings and homicides has led to a significant increase in foreign direct investments as well as in tourism. These achievements are there. Now it is time not only to maintain these, but to focus on “new” areas of concern. Mockus, with his proposal of building upon them and to move from “democratic security” towards “democratic legality”, could actually hit the nail on the head. Security has largely been established by empowering and professionalizing the state’s security forces–now it is time to empower the justice structure in Colombia in order to eradicate impunity and to combat corruption.
Best regards,
Roberto