The Colombian presidential elections are just around the corner and voters seem destined to split the vote between the Green party’s Antanas Mockus and outgoing president Alvaro Uribe’s pick, Juan Manuel Santos. As Colombia’s electoral process requires fifty percent plus one to win, it’s almost guaranteed that there will be a second round of voting June 20th with just the two leading candidates on the ballot.

Photo by Kristen Price

Santos, during his three year stint as Uribe’s defense minister, saw his popularity skyrocket for his involvement in such brilliant military operations as “Jaque” (Checkmate), which resulted in the liberation of the most important hostages held by the FARC rebel group. However, Santos lacks the charisma and oratory skills of his mentor, and this is probably what has contributed to keeping him well below 40 percent in this election’s opinion polls, while Mockus’ numbers have been on the rise. What propelled Mockus to a statistical tie was the ominous threat recently uttered by Venezuela’s dictator, Hugo Chavez: if Santos won, he said, war  between the neighboring countries would ensue. Chavez is as feared  as he is reviled in Colombia, and has a long history of meddling in the neighboring nation’s affairs.

Mockus was a two term mayor of the Colombian capital, Bogota, who was widely heralded for his innovative social policies. He is also known for his eccentricities, which included dressing up as a super hero,  demonstrating in front of the cameras how to shower with a minimum of water, wearing nothing more than a skimpy Speedo, and even mooning an university auditorium audience. His recent wedding was held in a zoo,  he and his bride riding on the back of an elephant. Despite his antics, the former philosophy and mathematics professor finds his core supporters among the young,  the largest demographic group  in Colombia, the country’s population has an average age of 27.6 years, as compared to 36.8 in the USA, or 40.7 in Canada*. Strangely, his popularity is marginal among the country’s poor, the very social stratum most of his political platform is aimed at. The reason for this phenomenon could be that the nation’s disenfranchised are weary of the violence that still stalks their lives, and Mockus has done little to quiet rumors that he would be soft on the rebel groups,  narcotics traffickers, and gangs that haunt both cities and rural areas.

Colombia is a complicated country with problems most democracies don’t have to contend with, such as a 48 percent poverty rate** and heavily armed rebel and criminal groups roaming through most of its territory, not to mention continuous threats from Venezuela and its allies. Under the Uribe administration, personal security has increased dramatically, government control having been returned to the major cities and principal highways, as well as vast swaths of rural land. This was achieved via a hard line policy, applying relentless military force, instead of negotiating with illegal organizations.  All previous attempts at resolving Colombia’s conflicts by political means have been disastrous. Mockus’ rival,  Santos, knows something about such fiascos, as he oversaw former president Andres Pastrana’s ill conceived peace plan that left FARC rebels in control of a territory the size of Switzerland from 1999-2002. This allowed the terrorists to deeply entrench themselves and gain strength, not to mention massacre unprotected local populations.  Uribe, who succeeded Pastrana, has managed to disband virtually all paramiltary groups and has severely damaged both the FARC and ELN rebels. All current candidates have pledged to continue Uribe’s “Democratic Security” policy. However, political observers have serious concerns over a possible Mockus triumph.

Mockus has raised alarms with his many shocking statements in front of the press, stirring up further controversy by later denying what he clearly said. One of his biggest gaffes was confessing he admired Hugo Chavez, later claiming he was misinterpreted.  In another interview Mockus said the unthinkable: that he if a foreign government (namely Ecuador or Venezuela) called for the extradition of Uribe or Santos, he would permit it should Colombian courts avail it. He also has expressed the wish to transform Colombia into a country without an army, similar to Costa Rica. In a country as embattled as Colombia, musing about disbanding the military may sound insane. In yet another blunder, he asserted that doctors should earn no more than one million pesos a month (about 500 dollars), thereby alienating medical professionals. Finally, he recently said what every politician in the world knows you should never say if you want to get elected: that he would raise taxes! You can show your derriere to the world, but talk of tax increases is like kryptonite! Mockus may have done irreparable damage to his campaign this time.

Colombia can’t risk a four year experiment with Mockus and his Green party at this time, as the security problems of this country are still the main focus and require the leadership of someone who is pragmatic rather than idealistic. An enormous mistake could be made during these elections, thanks to a young population that has a false sense of security and little idea of the fragility of the relatively peaceful times they’re living in, let alone that this only exists because of the hard battles that have been fought over the last several years.

* National average age statistics from the CIA World Factbook.
** 2008 estimate by DANE, the Colombian federal statistical bureau.

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